Fair Odds in Tennis

Fair odds are a benchmark

Fair odds express a probability assessment in the same decimal format used by the market. The arithmetic is standard, but estimating the underlying probability reliably is the difficult part.

A fair price is not a promise of what will happen. CourtValue’s own probability transformations, adjustments and decision thresholds are proprietary.

Market margin

Bookmaker prices usually imply probabilities that add to more than 100%. That excess is the overround. Comparing raw prices without accounting for margin can overstate an apparent edge, particularly in smaller Challenger markets.

Value and uncertainty

A market price above a credible fair price may indicate value. The conclusion still depends on clean player data, the correct surface, current odds and contextual filters. Small differences can disappear through model error or price movement.

• Record the price available at selection time.
• Do not substitute closing odds for the original decision price.
• Judge a method over a meaningful sample, not one match.

CourtValue’s use

CourtValue publishes the recorded market odds and tracks settled Official Picks transparently. Don’t Bet flags and Double Up selections remain separate products and do not enter Official Pick performance tracking.