Original evidence from recorded selections.
A research foundation built from immutable odds, units, surfaces, matchup profiles and final settlements.
What makes the dataset useful
Every observation corresponds to a published Official Pick with a recorded market price, stake and final settlement. Defeats remain in the sample. Warnings, Challenge selections, retirements and walkovers remain outside Official Pick performance.
Small samples are presented descriptively and are not labelled statistically significant. Historical ROI is never used as a promise of future return.
By surface
clay3 picks · 2–1+1.54u38.5%
hard46 picks · 26–20+7.31u11.4%
Hard46 picks · 31–15+18.41u26.3%
Clay28 picks · 16–12+1.88u4.6%
By circuit
Challenger33 picks · 24–9+17.08u38.0%
ATP40 picks · 21–19+0.21u0.4%
Other50 picks · 30–20+11.85u15.2%
By recorded price
Below 1.7039 picks · 28–11+9.63u12.7%
1.70–1.9934 picks · 22–12+11.68u22.0%
2.00–2.4939 picks · 20–19+4.72u12.1%
2.50+11 picks · 5–6+3.11u28.3%
Research programme
Surface Elo and recorded market outcomes
Compare surface-rating differences with settled CourtValue selections while separating ATP and Challenger samples.
Performance by price band
Study volatility, strike rate and ROI across favourite, near-even and underdog selections.
Interrupted-match price integrity
Document how frozen pre-match prices preserve the historical record when a match resumes on another day.
Research is descriptive and based on the available CourtValue record. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly.