Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz statistical comparison

Tommy Paul has a 68.2% win rate across 66 2026 matches. Carlos Alcaraz has a 82.9% win rate across 41 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Tommy Paul is 3–1 and Carlos Alcaraz is 3–1. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Tommy Paul records 84.5% of service games held and 66.4% of service points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 87.0% of service games held and 67.2% of service points won.

On return, Tommy Paul records 24.4% of return games broken and 38.3% of return points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 31.4% of return games broken and 42.0% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 8.2% for Tommy Paul and 5.5% for Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 200.4 points. The rating baseline converts to 24.0% for Tommy Paul and 76.0% for Carlos Alcaraz before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.0% versus 84.5%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (31.4% versus 24.4%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.