Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz statistical comparison

Daniil Medvedev has a 73.6% win rate across 72 2026 matches. Carlos Alcaraz has a 83.3% win rate across 42 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Daniil Medvedev is 4–0 and Carlos Alcaraz is 3–1. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Daniil Medvedev records 84.7% of service games held and 66.1% of service points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 87.1% of service games held and 67.1% of service points won.

On return, Daniil Medvedev records 28.2% of return games broken and 40.7% of return points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 31.4% of return games broken and 42.0% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 12.0% for Daniil Medvedev and 5.7% for Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 116.8 points. The rating baseline converts to 33.8% for Daniil Medvedev and 66.2% for Carlos Alcaraz before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.1% versus 84.7%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (31.4% versus 28.2%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.