Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz statistical comparison

Matteo Berrettini has a 54.3% win rate across 46 2026 matches. Carlos Alcaraz has a 84.8% win rate across 46 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Matteo Berrettini is 3–1 and Carlos Alcaraz is 4–0. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Matteo Berrettini records 86.5% of service games held and 68.3% of service points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 87.5% of service games held and 67.3% of service points won.

On return, Matteo Berrettini records 14.7% of return games broken and 33.4% of return points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 30.9% of return games broken and 41.9% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 11.8% for Matteo Berrettini and 5.8% for Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 341.3 points. The rating baseline converts to 12.3% for Matteo Berrettini and 87.7% for Carlos Alcaraz before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.5% versus 86.5%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (30.9% versus 14.7%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.