Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz statistical comparison

Casper Ruud has a 63.6% win rate across 55 2026 matches. Carlos Alcaraz has a 85.1% win rate across 47 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Casper Ruud is 3–1 and Carlos Alcaraz is 4–0. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Casper Ruud records 86.3% of service games held and 66.9% of service points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 87.5% of service games held and 67.3% of service points won.

On return, Casper Ruud records 22.5% of return games broken and 37.0% of return points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 30.9% of return games broken and 41.9% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 8.6% for Casper Ruud and 5.8% for Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 255.9 points. The rating baseline converts to 18.6% for Casper Ruud and 81.4% for Carlos Alcaraz before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.5% versus 86.3%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (30.9% versus 22.5%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.