Carlos Alcaraz
ESP
Age 23
Tokyo · HARD
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction
3 October 2026 · 06:40
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Age 25
Estimates, not picks. Form, fitness and match conditions also matter.
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Tennis Abstract · 2 players · Loading ratings
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction, H2H and odds
Carlos Alcaraz won the match with a final score of 2-0. The original Elo, H2H and statistical match analysis remains available below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi statistical comparison
Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi are compared using verified 2026 records, recent form, hard-court Elo, serve-and-return indicators and head-to-head data where a reliable record is available.
Carlos Alcaraz2079.8hard Elo
ABSOLUTE ELO GAP403.3between the players
Matteo Arnaldi1676.5hard Elo
CARLOS ALCARAZ PROFILECarlos Alcaraz
View full profileESP · Age 23 · Right-handed · 183 cm · Rank 3
- Hold
- 87.2%
- Break
- 31.4%
- Aces
- 5.5%
- Return points
- 42.0%
MATTEO ARNALDI PROFILEMatteo Arnaldi
View full profileITA · Age 25 · Right-handed · 185 cm · Rank 38
- Hold
- 70.9%
- Break
- 23.1%
- Aces
- 5.7%
- Return points
- 37.6%
Market prices for Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Available pre-match bookmaker prices for both players. Market odds can move after this page is updated.
Odds and match data updated .
Carlos Alcaraz recent form
- LZizou Bergs [BEL] d. (2) Alcaraz07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R327-5 7-6(4)
- W(2) Alcaraz d. Juan Manuel Cerundolo [ARG]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R646-3 6-3
- W(1) Alcaraz d. Jiri Lehecka [CZE]30-Sep-2026 · Tokyo · Hard · F7-6(4) 6-4
- W(1) Alcaraz d. (Q) Jaume Munar [ESP]30-Sep-2026 · Tokyo · Hard · SF5-7 6-3 6-1
- W(1) Alcaraz d. Denis Shapovalov [CAN]30-Sep-2026 · Tokyo · Hard · QF7-6(3) 2-1 RET
Matteo Arnaldi recent form
- L(11) Taylor Fritz [USA] d. Arnaldi07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R647-5 6-4
- WArnaldi d. (Q) Bernard Tomic [AUS]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R1286-3 6-1
- L(1) Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] d. Arnaldi30-Sep-2026 · Tokyo · Hard · R167-6(6) 6-1
- WArnaldi d. (WC) Rei Sakamoto [JPN]30-Sep-2026 · Tokyo · Hard · R322-6 6-4 6-4
- LJames Duckworth [AUS] d. (30) Arnaldi31-Aug-2026 · US Open · Hard · R1285-7 6-3 6-2 7-6(8)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi statistical comparison
Carlos Alcaraz has a 84.6% win rate across 39 2026 matches. Matteo Arnaldi has a 50.0% win rate across 32 matches.
Across the five most recent verified results available, Carlos Alcaraz is 4–1 and Matteo Arnaldi is 2–3. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.
Carlos Alcaraz records 87.2% of service games held and 67.2% of service points won. Matteo Arnaldi records 70.9% of service games held and 59.8% of service points won.
On return, Carlos Alcaraz records 31.4% of return games broken and 42.0% of return points won. Matteo Arnaldi records 23.1% of return games broken and 37.6% of return points won.
The available ace-rate figures are 5.5% for Carlos Alcaraz and 5.7% for Matteo Arnaldi.
Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 424.5 points. The rating baseline converts to 92.0% for Carlos Alcaraz and 8.0% for Matteo Arnaldi before any separate market or contextual assessment.
Hard-court matchup factors
Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.2% versus 70.9%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (31.4% versus 23.1%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.
Match FAQ
What does the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction assess?
It compares verified 2026 player records, recent form, hard Elo, serve-and-return indicators, H2H history and available market odds.
What is the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H record?
CourtValue has not found a reliable completed H2H record for this matchup and does not invent one.
Are the displayed odds a guaranteed pick?
No. Odds and Elo estimates can change and no prediction guarantees a result or profit. CourtValue separates statistical comparison from any separately labelled Official Pick.