Alex De Minaur
AUS
Age 27
Beijing · HARD
Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev prediction
4 October 2026 · 09:10
Andrey Rublev
RUS
Age 28
Estimates, not picks. Form, fitness and match conditions also matter.
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Tennis Abstract · 2 players · Loading ratings
Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev prediction, H2H and odds
Alex De Minaur won the match with a final score of 2-1. The original Elo, H2H and statistical match analysis remains available below.
Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev statistical comparison
Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev are compared using verified 2026 records, recent form, hard-court Elo, serve-and-return indicators and head-to-head data where a reliable record is available.
Alex De Minaur1927.0hard Elo
ABSOLUTE ELO GAP91.5between the players
Andrey Rublev1835.5hard Elo
ALEX DE MINAUR PROFILEAlex De Minaur
View full profileAUS · Age 27 · Right-handed · 183 cm · Rank 9
- Hold
- 81.9%
- Break
- 26.7%
- Aces
- 5.4%
- Return points
- 39.7%
ANDREY RUBLEV PROFILEAndrey Rublev
View full profileRUS · Age 28 · Right-handed · 188 cm · Rank 23
- Hold
- 84.6%
- Break
- 22.0%
- Aces
- 10.0%
- Return points
- 37.1%
Market prices for Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev
Available pre-match bookmaker prices for both players. Market odds can move after this page is updated.
Odds and match data updated .
Alex De Minaur recent form
- –(9) De Minaur vs (1) Alexander Zverev [GER]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · QF—
- W(9) De Minaur d. (26) Karen Khachanov [RUS]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R166-3 6-4
- W(9) De Minaur d. (Q) Rei Sakamoto [JPN]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R327-6(6) 6-4
- W(9) De Minaur d. Alex Molcan [SVK]07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R64W/O
- L(6) Novak Djokovic [SRB] d. (5) De Minaur30-Sep-2026 · Beijing · Hard · F7-6(3) 0-1 RET
Andrey Rublev recent form
- L(Q) Rei Sakamoto [JPN] d. (23) Rublev07-Oct-2026 · Shanghai · Hard · R646-4 6-4
- L(5) Alex De Minaur [AUS] d. Rublev30-Sep-2026 · Beijing · Hard · QF1-6 6-2 6-3
- WRublev d. (SE) Roman Safiullin [RUS]30-Sep-2026 · Beijing · Hard · R166-2 3-6 6-4
- WRublev d. Tallon Griekspoor [NED]30-Sep-2026 · Beijing · Hard · R326-4 5-7 7-6(6)
- L(1) Daniil Medvedev [RUS] d. (2) Rublev23-Sep-2026 · Hangzhou · Hard · F7-5 6-4
Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev statistical comparison
Alex De Minaur has a 68.8% win rate across 64 2026 matches. Andrey Rublev has a 62.3% win rate across 53 matches.
Across the five most recent verified results available, Alex De Minaur is 3–1 and Andrey Rublev is 2–3. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.
Alex De Minaur records 81.9% of service games held and 64.5% of service points won. Andrey Rublev records 84.6% of service games held and 66.7% of service points won.
On return, Alex De Minaur records 26.7% of return games broken and 39.7% of return points won. Andrey Rublev records 22.0% of return games broken and 37.1% of return points won.
The available ace-rate figures are 5.4% for Alex De Minaur and 10.0% for Andrey Rublev.
Alex De Minaur holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 100.4 points. The rating baseline converts to 64.1% for Alex De Minaur and 35.9% for Andrey Rublev before any separate market or contextual assessment.
Hard-court matchup factors
Andrey Rublev enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (84.6% versus 81.9%). Alex De Minaur has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (26.7% versus 22.0%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.
Match FAQ
What does the Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev prediction assess?
It compares verified 2026 player records, recent form, hard Elo, serve-and-return indicators, H2H history and available market odds.
What is the Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev H2H record?
CourtValue has not found a reliable completed H2H record for this matchup and does not invent one.
Are the displayed odds a guaranteed pick?
No. Odds and Elo estimates can change and no prediction guarantees a result or profit. CourtValue separates statistical comparison from any separately labelled Official Pick.