Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov statistical comparison

Carlos Alcaraz has a 84.6% win rate across 39 2026 matches. Denis Shapovalov has a 51.2% win rate across 41 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Carlos Alcaraz is 4–1 and Denis Shapovalov is 3–2. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Carlos Alcaraz records 87.2% of service games held and 67.2% of service points won. Denis Shapovalov records 77.7% of service games held and 63.3% of service points won.

On return, Carlos Alcaraz records 31.4% of return games broken and 42.0% of return points won. Denis Shapovalov records 22.8% of return games broken and 37.2% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 5.5% for Carlos Alcaraz and 10.1% for Denis Shapovalov.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 303.2 points. The rating baseline converts to 85.1% for Carlos Alcaraz and 14.9% for Denis Shapovalov before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Carlos Alcaraz enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.2% versus 77.7%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (31.4% versus 22.8%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.