Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz statistical comparison

Karen Khachanov has a 54.0% win rate across 50 2026 matches. Carlos Alcaraz has a 82.5% win rate across 40 matches.

Across the five most recent verified results available, Karen Khachanov is 2–2 and Carlos Alcaraz is 3–1. This form sample is descriptive and does not override the scheduled surface or opponent quality.

Karen Khachanov records 87.6% of service games held and 68.2% of service points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 87.2% of service games held and 67.2% of service points won.

On return, Karen Khachanov records 19.8% of return games broken and 35.6% of return points won. Carlos Alcaraz records 31.4% of return games broken and 42.0% of return points won.

The available ace-rate figures are 9.3% for Karen Khachanov and 5.5% for Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the higher verified hard-court Elo in this comparison, with an Elo gap of 270.3 points. The rating baseline converts to 17.4% for Karen Khachanov and 82.6% for Carlos Alcaraz before any separate market or contextual assessment.

Hard-court matchup factors

Karen Khachanov enters with the stronger recorded hold percentage (87.6% versus 87.2%). Carlos Alcaraz has created more return-game pressure by break percentage (31.4% versus 19.8%). These indicators describe the matchup rather than guarantee an outcome; current odds and late match information can materially change the value assessment.